Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 9 13 2009 10.5194/acp-9-4419-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/4419/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/4419/2009/acp-9-4419-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/4419/2009/acp-9-4419-2009.pdf 4419 4438 2009-07-07 Evaluation of WRF mesoscale simulations and particle trajectory analysis for the MILAGRO field campaign B. de Foy bdefoy@slu.edu M. Zavala N. Bei L. T. Molina Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, MO, USA Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, CA, USA Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA, USA Accurate numerical simulations of the complex wind flows in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) can be an invaluable tool for interpreting the MILAGRO field campaign results. This paper uses three methods to evaluate numerical simulations of basin meteorology using the MM5 and WRF models: statistical comparisons with observations, "Concentration Field Analysis" (CFA) using measured air pollutant concentrations, and comparison of flow features using cluster analysis. CFA is shown to be a better indication of simulation quality than statistical metrics, and WRF simulations are shown to be an improvement on the MM5 ones. Comparisons with clusters identifies an under-representation of the drainage flows into the basin and an over-representation of wind shear in the boundary layer. Particle trajectories simulated with WRF-FLEXPART are then used to analyse the transport of the urban plume and show rapid venting and limited recirculation during MILAGRO. Lagrangian impacts were identified at the campaign supersites, and age spectra of the pollutants evaluated at those same sites. 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