Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
www.atmos-chem-phys.net
1680-7316
1680-7324
8
4
2008
10.5194/acp-8-871-2008
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/871/2008/
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/871/2008/acp-8-871-2008.html
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/871/2008/acp-8-871-2008.pdf
871
885
2008-02-22
The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States
P. N. Racherla
pavanracherla@cmu.edu
P. J. Adams
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
We investigate the response of surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) to future
climate change in the eastern United States by performing
simulations corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s)
climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric
gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed
using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2
scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions
and CO<sub>2</sub>/CH<sub>4</sub> mixing ratios have been used in both
simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary
with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O<sub>3</sub>
episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change,
primarily as a result of increased O<sub>3</sub> chemical production. The
95th percentile O<sub>3</sub> mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the
largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US
EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The
increased O<sub>3</sub> chemical production is due to increases in: 1)
natural isoprene emissions; 2) hydroperoxy radical concentrations
resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3) NO<sub>x</sub>
concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and
statistically significant (<i>p</i><0.05) increases in episode
frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely
as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene
emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O<sub>3</sub> season
over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and
early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average
lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of
surface O<sub>3</sub>, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing
most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer.
Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of
O<sub>3</sub> episodes and we find that it is necessary to utilize 5 years
or more of simulation data in order to separate the effects of
interannual variability and climate change on O<sub>3</sub> episodes in the
eastern United States.
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