References

ACP

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ACP

1680-7324

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acp-10-9689-2010

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Corbett

J. J.

¹ Lack

D. A.

² ³ Winebrake

J. J.

⁴ Harder

⁵ Silberman

J. A.

⁶ Gold

⁷

College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19716, USA

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA

Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, 14623, NY, USA

Transport Canada, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6Z 2J8, Canada

GIS Consulting, Unionville, PA, 19375, USA

Canadian Coast Guard, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0E6, Canada

14 10 2010

10 19 9689 9704

This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9689/2010/acp-10-9689-2010.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9689/2010/acp-10-9689-2010.pdf

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

References 1

ACIA: Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press, 140 pp., 2004.

Arctic Council: available online at: http://arctic-council.org/filearchive/Tromsoe Declaration-1..pdf: last access: 12 October 2010, 2009a.

Arctic Council, Coordinating Lead Authors: Brigham, L., McCalla, R., Cunningham, E., Barr, W., Vanderzaag, D., Santos-Pedro, V., MacDonald, R., Harder, S., et al.: Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report, edited by: Ellis, B., and Brigham, L., Arctic Council, Tromsa, Norway, 194 pp., 2009b.

Bond, T. C., Streets, D. G., Yarber, K. F., Nelson, S. M., Woo, J.-H., and Klimont, Z.: A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D14203, doi: 10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004.

Boucher, O. and Reddy, M. S.: Climate trade-off between black carbon and carbon dioxide emissions, Energy Policy, 36(1), 193–200, 2008.

Buhaug, Ø., Corbett, J. J., Endresen, Ø., Eyring, V., Faber, J., Hanayama, S., Lee, D. S., Lee, D., Lindstad, H., Mjelde, A., et al.: Second IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2009, International Maritime Organization, London, 2009.

Caiazzo, G., Nardo, A. D., Langella, G., and Noviello, C.: Numerical evaluation of seawater scrubbers efficiency for exhaust gas desulphurization, Combustion Colloquia, 32nd Meeting on Combustion: Italian Section of the Combustion Institute, Napoli, Italy, 2009,

Capaldo, K. P., Corbett, J. J., Kasibhatla, P., Fischbeck, P., and Pandis, S. N.: Effects of Ship Emissions on Sulphur Cycling and Radiative Climate Forcing Over the Ocean, Nature, 400, 743–746, 1999.

Corbett, J. J. and Koehler, H. W.: Updated Emissions from Ocean Shipping. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108(D20), 4650–4666, 2003.

Corbett, J. J., Wang, C., Winebrake, J. J., and Green, E.: Review of Marpol Annex VI and the NOx Technical Code: Allocation and Forecasting of Global Ship Emissions, International Maritime Organization, London, UK, 27 pp., 2007.

Cooper, D. A.: Methodology for calculating emissions from ships: 1. Update of emission factors; IVL: 2 February, 2004.

Dalsoren, S. B., Endresen, O., Isaksen, I. S. A., Gravir, G., and Sorgard, E.: Environmental impacts of the expected increase in sea transportation, with a particular focus on oil and gas scenarios for Norway and northwest Russia, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02310, doi:10.1029/2005JD006927, 2007.

Suez Canal Statistics: available online at: http://www.emdb.gov.eg/english/inside_e.aspx?main=suezcanal&level1=totals, access: 19 January 2010, 2010.

Entec UK Limited, Ritchie, A., Jonge, E. d., Hugi, C., and Cooper, D.: European Commission Directorate General Environment, Service Contract on Ship Emissions: Assignment, Abatement, and Market-based Instruments. Task 2c – SO2 Abatement, Entec UK Limited, Northwich, Cheshire, UK, 2005.

Eyring, V., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berntsen, T., Collins, W. J., Corbett, J. J., Endresen, O., Grainger, R. G., Moldanova, J., Schlager, H., and Stevenson, D. S.: Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate and Ozone: Shipping, Atmos. Environ., 44(37), 4735–4771, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.059, 2010.

Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Randerson, J. T., and Rasch, P. J.: Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 112, D11202, doi:10.1029/2006jd008003, 2007.

Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Hess, P. G., Mahowald, N. M., Painter, T. H., Ramanathan, V., and Rasch, P. J.: Springtime warming and reduced snow cover from carbonaceous particles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2481–2497, doi:10.5194/acp-9-2481-2009, 2009.

Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T., Myhre, G., Rypdal, K., and Skeie, R. B.: Climate forcing from the transport sectors, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 454–458, doi:10.1073/pnas.0702958104, 2008.

Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T., Eyring, V., Isaksen, I., Lee, D. S., and Sausen, R.: Shipping Emissions: From Cooling to Warming of Climate and Reducing Impacts on Health, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 9057–9062, 2009.

Fuglestvedt, J. S., Shine, K. P., Berntsen, T., Cook, J., Lee, D. S., Stenke, A., Skeie, R. B., Velders, G. J. M., and Waitz, I. A.: Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Metrics, Atmospheric Environment, corrected proof, 44(36), 4648–4677, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.044, 2010.

Globalsecurity.org, Panama Canal Operations: available online at: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/panama-canal-ops.htm, last access: 19 January 2010, 2010.

Granier, C., Niemeier, U., Jungclaus, J. H., Emmons, L., Hess, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Walters, S., and Brasseur, G. P.: Ozone pollution from future ship traffic in the Arctic northern passages, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(5), L13807, doi:10.1029/2006GL026180, 2006.

Hansen, J. and Nazarenko, L.: Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 423–428, doi:10.1073/pnas.2237157100, 2004.

Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Nazarenko, L., Lacis, A., Schmidt, G. A., Russell, G., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., et al.: Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D18104, 10.1029/2005jd005776, 2005.

IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report; Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 104, ISBN 92-9169-122-4, 2007.

Jakobson, L.: China Prepares for an Ice-Free Arctic, SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, 2, D14209, doi:10.1029/2009JD013795, 2010.

Jacobson, M. Z.: Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health, J. Geophys. Res., 115(D14), D14209, doi:10.1029/2009JD013795, 2010.

Khoder, M. I.: Atmospheric conversion of sulfur dioxide to particulate sulfate and nitrogen dioxide to particulate nitrate and gaseous nitric acid in an urban area, Chemosphere, 49, 675–684, 2002.

Kristin, R., Nathan, R., Terje K. B., Zbigniew, K., Torben K. M., Gunnar, M., and Ragnhild, B. S.: Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies, Tellus B, 61(4), 625–641, 2009.

Hegg, D. A., Warren, S. G., Grenfell, T. C., Doherty, S. J., and Clarke, A. D.: Sources of light-absorbing aerosol in arctic snow and their seasonal variation, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 13755–13796, doi:10.5194/acpd-10-13755-2010, 2010.

Holland America Line Sea Water Scrubber Demonstration Project: http://www.fasterfreightcleanerair.com/pdfs/Presentations/FFCAPNW2008/Dave Kircher presentation FFCA PNW.pdf, last access: 15 January, 2008.

Lack, D., Lemer, B., Granier, C., Baynard, T., Lovejoy, E., Massoli, P., Ravishankara, A. R., and Williams, E.: Light absorbing carbon emissions from commercial shipping, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13815, doi:10.1029/2008GL03390, 2008.

Lack, D. A., Corbett, J. J., Onasch, T., Lerner, B., Massoli, P., Quinn, P. K., Bates, T. S., Covert, D. S., Coffman, D., Sierau, B., et al.: Particulate emissions from commercial shipping: Chemical, physical, and optical properties, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00F04, doi:10.1029/2008JD011300, 2009.

Lauer, A., Eyring, V., Corbett, J. J., Wang, C., and Winebrake, J. J.: An assessment of near future policy instruments for international shipping: Impact on atmospheric aerosol burdens and the Earth's radiation budget, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43(15), 5592–5598, doi:10.1021/es900922h, 2009.

Lyyranen, J., Jokiniemi, J., Kauppinen, E. I., and Joutsensaari, J.: Aerosol Characterisation In Medium-Speed Diesel Engines Operating With Heavy Fuel Oils, J. Aerosol Sci., 30, 771–784, 1999.

Mauritsen, T., Sedlar, J., Tjernstr�m, M., Leck, C., Martin, M., Shupe, M., Sjogren, S., Sierau, B., Persson, P. O. G., Brooks, I. M., and Swietlicki, E.: Aerosols indirectly warm the Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16775–16796, doi:10.5194/acpd-10-16775-2010, 2010.

Mjelde, A. and Hustad, H.: Teknisk Rapport: Driftsutslipp til luft og sjø fra skipstrafikk i norske havområder, Det Norske Veritas, Rapport Nr.: 2007–2030, rev. 02, 28 pp., 2009.

Moldanová, J., Fridell, E., Popovicheva, O., Demirdjian, B., Tishkova, V., Faccinetto, A., and Focsa, C.: Characterisation of particulate matter and gaseous emissions from a large ship diesel engine, Atmos. Environ., 43, 2632–2641, 2009.

Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows. Diminished summer sea ice leads to opening of the fabled Northwest Passage, available online at: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html, 2007.

Paxian, A., Eyring, V., Beer, W., Sausen, R., and Wright, C.: Present-Day and Future Global Bottom-Up Ship Emission Inventories Including Polar Routes, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44(4), 1333–1339, doi:10.1021/ES9022859, 2010.

Petzold, A., Hasselbach, J., Lauer, P., Baumann, R., Franke, K., Gurk, C., Schlager, H., and Weingartner, E.: Experimental studies on particle emissions from cruising ship, their characteristic properties, transformation and atmospheric lifetime in the marine boundary layer, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2387–2403, 2008.

Petzold, A., Weingartner, E., Hasselbach, J., Lauer, P., Kurok, C., and Fleischer, F.: Physical Properties, Chemical Composition, and Cloud Forming Potential of Particulate Emissions from a Marine Diesel Engine at Various Load Conditions, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44(10), 3800–3805, 2010.

Plain sailing on the Northwest Passage, available online at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6999078.stm, 2007.

Quinn, P. K., Bates, T. S., Baum, E., Doubleday, N., Fiore, A. M., Flanner, M., Fridlind, A., Garrett, T. J., Koch, D., Menon, S., et al.: Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1723–1735, 2008.

Ramanathan, V. and Carmichael, G.: Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon, Nat. Geosci., 1, 221–227, 2008.

Reddy, S. M. and Boucher, O.: Climate Impact of Black Carbon Emitted from Energy Consumption in the World's Regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L11802, doi:10.1029/2006GL208904, 2006.

Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M., Manning, M., and Bodeker, G.: Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2 and CH4, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37(14), L14707, doi:10.1029/2010GL043803, 2010. Robinson, A. L., Donahue, N. M., Shrivastava, M. K., Weitkamp, E. A., Sage, A. M., Grieshop, A. P., Lane, T. E., Pierce, J. R., and Pandis, S. N.: Rethinking Organic Aerosols: Semivolatile Emissions and Photochemical Aging, Science, 315, 1259–1262, doi:10.1126/science.1133061, 2007.

Shine, K., Fuglestvedt, J., Hailemariam, K., and Stuber, N.: Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases, Clim. Change, 68, 281–302, 2005.

Somanathan, S., Flynn, P. C., and Szymanski, J.: The Northwest Passage: A Simulation, Transp. Res. Part A, 43, 127–135, 2009.

Verny, J. and Grigentin, C.: Container Shipping on the Northern Sea Route, Int. J. Prod. Econom., 122(1), 107–117, doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2009.1003.1018, 2009.

Wang, C., Corbett, J. J., and Firestone, J.: Improving Spatial Representation of Global Ship Emissions Inventories, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 193–199, 2008.

Winebrake, J. J., Corbett, J. J., and Green, E. H.: Black Carbon Control Costs in Shipping, ClimateWorks, Pittsford, NY, USA, 14 pp., 2009a.

Winebrake, J. J., Corbett, J. J., Green, E. H., Lauer, A., and Eyring, V.: Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 4776–4782, doi:10.1021/es803224q, 2009b.